Suppose you are wondering “Who are the greatest golfers of all time?” Then, ChatGPT can quickly give you an answer. This saves you from weeding through a lot of web pages that load slowly, have annoying popups, and are of mixed quality. In this way, ChatGPT serves as a personal search agent for you.
This is so convenient that Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates recently opined people will eventually stop using Google directly altogether.
The technology will be so profound, it could radically alter user behaviors. “Whoever wins the personal agent, that’s the big thing, because you will never go to a search site again, you will never go to a productivity site, you’ll never go to Amazon again,” he said.
Woah there, Bill. Although ChatGPT is clearly convenient for factual, non-controversial answers, what about more controversial topics like “Did the election get stolen from Trump?” and “What are the causes of the immigration surge at the southern border?” Let’s see what happens.
Election Fraud
Plenty of elected Republican officials have claimed that the 2020 U.S. presidential election fraud was stolen from former-President Trump. ChatGPT gives a brief rundown, as follows:
1. Senator Ron Johnson: Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin raised concerns about the integrity of the election and called for investigations into alleged irregularities. He held a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing to examine claims of election fraud.
2. Senator Rand Paul: Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky questioned the legitimacy of the election results and called for investigations into alleged voter fraud. He also criticized the handling of the election in certain states.
3. Representative Mo Brooks: Representative Mo Brooks from Alabama publicly expressed his belief that the election was "stolen" from Donald Trump and was involved in efforts to challenge the certification of electoral votes during the joint session of Congress.
4. Representative Jim Jordan: Representative Jim Jordan from Ohio voiced concerns about the election process and raised questions about the validity of the results in some states.
5. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene: Greene, a Republican representative from Georgia, has been vocal in her support of former President Trump and has repeatedly claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. She introduced articles of impeachment against President Joe Biden, citing "abuse of power" during his time as vice president and claiming that the election was illegitimate.
There are a lot more Republicans than those listed above who are espousing that view. It is a widely held talking point. But, what if we ask ChatGPT Was the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Stolen from Trump? It turns out that ChatGPT emphatically disagrees.
No, the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election was not stolen from former President Donald Trump. Multiple courts, including those with conservative-appointed judges, dismissed numerous lawsuits filed by the Trump campaign and his allies, citing a lack of evidence to support claims of widespread voter fraud or irregularities that could have affected the outcome of the election.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) called the 2020 election "the most secure in American history." The Department of Justice also found no evidence of widespread voter fraud that could have affected the outcome of the election.
The Electoral College, which determines the official outcome of the election, certified Joe Biden as the winner with 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232. The certification was confirmed by Congress on January 6, 2021, following the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
U.S. Southern Border Surge
Another contentious issue between Democrats and Republicans concerns what causes the surge of immigrants trying to cross the U.S. southern border. A writer over at the conservative editorial magazine National Review recently put forward an opinion that is typical of Republicans:
The truth is that the Biden administration has chosen to allow millions of migrants to enter the U.S. without visas. In fact, rarely in public policy is cause and effect as obvious as it is here. The Trump administration had ended the massive flows principally by requiring asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their cases were adjudicated. Because most of these asylum seekers were actually economic migrants who are ineligible for asylum under traditional rules, they simply went home rather than wait for the hearing. Their failure to gain entry then discouraged other would-be migrants from making the trip.
For the ChatGPT response, I asked What are the causes of the U.S. Southern Border surge by the level of significance? Here’s the response:
1. Economic and social conditions: Economic challenges, poverty, and lack of job opportunities in Central American countries are significant push factors that drive individuals to seek better economic prospects in the United States.
2. Violence and insecurity: High levels of violence, gang activity, and insecurity in certain Central American countries force individuals, including families and unaccompanied minors, to flee their homes and seek safety in the United States.
3. Political instability and corruption: Political instability, weak governance, and corruption in some countries contribute to security concerns, limited economic development, and lack of basic services, which can push individuals to migrate in search of better opportunities.
4. Disruptions in immigration policy: Changes in immigration policies, such as shifts in enforcement priorities or alterations in asylum regulations, can influence migration patterns and the perception of opportunities to enter and stay in the United States.
5. Natural disasters and climate change: While natural disasters and climate change can displace people, their direct impact on migration patterns at the U.S. southern border may be relatively lower compared to other factors. However, climate change's long-term effects may exacerbate existing challenges and increase migration pressures in the future.
Notice that President Biden’s name does not appear at all, and even if policies instituted by the Biden administration were having an effect, the significance level of immigration policy changes is rated low on the list.
Responsibility for Increasing the National Debt
Republicans frequently claim that Democrats are the ones spending all the money, so what does ChatGPT have to say about that? I asked, What is the ranking of U.S. presidential administrations in the last 50 years based on the approximate increase in the national debt as a percentage of GDP, from most to least?
ChatGPT said:
1. Barack Obama (2009-2017): The national debt increased by approximately 33.9% of GDP during Obama's two terms in office.
Okay, score one for Republicans. But wait…
2. George W. Bush (2001-2009): The national debt increased by approximately 25.1% of GDP during Bush's two terms in office.
3. Donald Trump (2017-2021): The national debt increased by approximately 23.8% of GDP during Trump's single term in office.
4. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989): The national debt increased by approximately 20.7% of GDP during Reagan's two terms in office.
5. George H. W. Bush (1989-1993): The national debt increased by approximately 7.1% of GDP during George H. W. Bush's single term in office.
6. Jimmy Carter (1977-1981): The national debt increased by approximately 5.9% of GDP during Carter's single term in office.
7. Bill Clinton (1993-2001): The national debt decreased by approximately 5.6% of GDP during Clinton's two terms in office.
Ruh-roh, not only did every Republican administration from Ronald Reagan to Trump increase the national debt, Bill Clinton actually decreased it. Of course, there are a lot of factors outside the President’s control that contribute to whether the national debt increases or decreases during their time in office, including decisions by their predecessor who may be from a different party. But any assertion that Democratic administrations are the problem would have to offer a solid explanation for the data.
The Personal Agent and News Reading
The preceding examples showed that chatGPT disagreed with some widely held GOP talking points. However, it seems likely—given the nature of politics—that ChatGPT would disagree with some talking points of Democrats as well. So, while ChatGPT does seem biased toward the mainstream consensus, I’ll refrain from claiming it favors one party or the other.
Getting back to Bill Gates’s prediction about personal agents taking over, I see two issues in light of ChatGPT’s responses to contentious questions. The first is how people get their news, and the second is about who uses search engines.
How People Get News
ChatGPT will almost certainly change how people get their news in the future, but I doubt it will completely take over the space. To understand why, take a look at some findings from Pew Research about where people get their news now.
People do get a significant part of their news from internet searches, which could be replaced by ChatGPT. But the data also shows that a significant number of people get their news directly from news websites or from social media. Research suggests this is because not all news sources are trusted, and also because people get their news in the context of interacting with friends, watching television, and listening to entertaining podcasts. These sources are not as amenable to being replaced by robotic personal agents.
How Search Engines Are Used in the Future
On the surface, it would seem like ChatGPT could put an end to a lot of misinformation, propaganda, and conspiracy theories. Yet, I think it’s highly unlikely that will happen, as research has shown that people who believe those kinds of things are hard to convince with facts and rationality. Furthermore, many people have a general distrust of big organizations, and personal agents are going to make the organizations behind them seem even more impersonal and potentially nefarious.
So I would opine that even if a personal agent is very good at collecting information, it is still not personal and trustworthy enough for a lot of people. This could influence who directly uses a search engine. Maybe ChatGPT appeals to a more mainstream crowd while Google in the future draws more conspiracy theorists and people who are innovating in ways the mainstream view has yet to recognize.
Leave a comment to let me know what you think!